The 2015 NBA MVP race is seemingly down to two -- Warriors point guard Stephen Curry and Rockets shooting guard James Harden.
There are plenty of opinions about who is more deserving. But none impact the subjective formula used for Basketball-Reference.com's MVP tracker, which gives Curry the edge.
Curry has a 37.7 percent chance to win the award, with Harden following at 26.4 percent.
Chris Paul, at 14.9 percent, is the only other player remotely close, with LeBron James (5.4 percent) and Anthony Davis (4.9 percent) rounding out the Top 5.*Disclaimer: The NBA MVP Award Tracker ranks candidates based on a model built using previous voting results.
| Rk | Player | Tm | W/L% | G | MP | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | Prob% |
| 1 | Curry | GSW | 0.81 | 77 | 32.8 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 2 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 2 | 23.9 | 37.30% |
| 2 | Harden | HOU | 0.679 | 77 | 36.9 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 4 | 2.6 | 27.6 | 26.40% |
| 3 | Paul | LAC | 0.671 | 79 | 34.9 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 19.1 | 14.90% |
| 4 | James | CLE | 0.654 | 67 | 36.3 | 6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 4 | 2 | 25.5 | 5.40% |
| 5 | Davis | NOP | 0.538 | 64 | 36.1 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 24.3 | 4.90% |
| 6 | Westbrook | OKC | 0.538 | 63 | 34.2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 27.5 | 4.40% |
| 7 | Griffin | LAC | 0.671 | 64 | 35.1 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 22 | 2.30% |
| 8 | Butler | CHI | 0.595 | 62 | 38.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 20.1 | 1.40% |
| 9 | Lillard | POR | 0.646 | 79 | 35.8 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2 | 21.1 | 1.40% |
| 10 | Aldridge | POR | 0.646 | 70 | 35.5 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 23.5 | 1.30% |
*Disclaimer: The NBA MVP Award Tracker ranks candidates based on a model built using previous voting results.
