The Giants already had a feared ace going into the 2016 season in Madison Bumgarner, but made big moves to add to their starting rotation. Among those, was the signing of Johnny Cueto.
Now teammates, will Bumgarner or Cueto have a lower WHIP for the Giants in 2016?
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
2015: 1.01
*Consensus Projection: 1.07
This is a little off-topic but I noticed the Rockies have a stretch in late August/early September where they play the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants in consecutive series. Can you imagine potentially facing Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Bumgarner all in the span of a few days? If I was on Colorado, I’d fake an injury that week.
[PAVLOVIC: Giants spring training Day 32: Bumgarner returns to mound]
Bumgarner hasn’t been 100 percent this spring—he’s dealing with rib and foot injuries—but it’s hard to ignore what he’s done over the last three seasons. ERA under three? Check. WHIP under 1.1? Check. 200-plus innings each year? Check. 200-plus strikeouts? Almost. He finished with 199 in 2013 but surpassed 200 the other two seasons. If you can name another pitcher as consistent as Bumgarner, I’m all ears.
Bumgarner threw an absurd amount of innings for the Giants during their playoff run in 2014, but didn’t show any signs of fatigue last season. His 6.0 K/BB ratio was the league’s fourth-highest behind Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Despite logging a career-high in innings (218 1/3), Bumgarner walked just 39 hitters, his fewest since 2010. He also lowered his BAA from .240 in 2014 to just .222 last season. It’s painful for NL hitters to hear this, but Bumgarner is still getting better.
[RELATED: By the numbers: Dissecting what spring training stats mean]
It never hurts to have a strong defense behind you and Bumgarner certainly has that in San Francisco. Only the Dodgers had a higher fielding percentage in 2015 while four of the Giants’ starters last year were Gold Glove finalists (Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy and Buster Posey). I think Bumgarner will beat this projection in his sleep.
Prediction: Under
Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
2015: 1.13
Projection: 1.14
Aside from, you know, winning the World Series and everything, Cueto’s tenure with the Royals couldn’t have gone much worse. His ERA rose from 2.62 to 4.76 after arriving at the trade deadline while his WHIP skyrocketed from 0.93 to 1.45. Opponents hit .307 during that stretch compared to only .196 in Cueto’s 19 starts for Cincinnati. His strikeout rate also plummeted from 8.94 in 2014 to 7.47 last season.
Cueto actually walked fewer hitters in Kansas City (1.88 BB/9) than he did in Cincinnati (2.00 BB/9), but that may have also been why he struggled. Cueto found the strike zone more often and hitters took advantage. Not that Cueto was ever going to get Greinke or Price money, but his rocky tenure in Kansas City may have contributed to his relatively quiet market this winter. Cueto’s heavy workload (480 2/3 combined innings over the last two seasons) could have also been a factor.
[PAVLOVIC: Giants spring training Day 33: Cueto enjoys minor league day]
None of that bodes well for Cueto but I’m still optimistic and here’s why. Cueto lost five starts in a row last year between August and early September. He collected a 9.57 ERA over that stretch with an embarrassing 1.97 WHIP. That’s all it was though—one atrocious five-game slump. If we erase those five games, Cueto’s ERA goes from 3.44 to 2.57 while his WHIP shrinks from 1.13 to 1.01. Cueto has finished with a WHIP under 1.10 three times in his last five seasons. Now that Cueto’s back in the National League where he’ll face pitchers instead of designated hitters, I think he’ll bounce back and make it four out of six.
Prediction: Under
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