In a salary-cap league with non-guaranteed contracts like the NFL, the offseason is a time teams rid themselves of players not living up to their pay scale. Every year, handfuls among handfuls of players are asked to take pay cuts or simply released outright. Before free agency opens March 10, I’ll highlight names from each team who may be on the roster bubble.
Terms to know are "cap number", "cap savings", "cash savings", and "dead money". Cap number is how much Player X will count against Team X's salary cap. Cap savings is how much Team X will clear in salary-cap space by cutting Player X. Cash savings is how much Team X will save in terms of sheer cash, and it can be formulated by Player X's base salary + bonuses. Dead money is how much Player X will count against Team X's salary cap, even if he is released. I already took a look at the AFC East here, the AFC North here, the AFC South here, the AFC West here, the NFC East here, the NFC North here, and the NFC South here.
[MAIOCCO: Which 49ers are candidates to become cap casualties?]
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
OLB Aldon Smith
Cap number: $9.754M
Cap savings: $9.754M
Cash savings: $9.754M
Dead money: $0
The 49ers are about $500K under the salary cap at the moment and need to clear some money somehow whether it’s in the form of releasing players or converting salaries into “signing” bonuses and kicking the can down the road. Smith is a long shot to be cut, but his past off-field issues and inflated salary make it that the 49ers will at least discuss it. When on the field, Smith is a nightmare edge rusher. Expect the 49ers to keep him and part ways with veteran OLB Ahmad Brooks to make room for second-year OLB Aaron Lynch. Smith will play out the final year of his contract and head toward free agency next offseason. If he can keep his head straight, Smith should command major dollars.
ILB Patrick Willis
Cap number: $8.268M
Cap savings: $7.425M
Cash savings: $7.846M
Dead money: $844K
Willis is another long shot to be released. He’s the leader of the defense, but just turned 30 last month and has chronic toe issues. Willis missed the final 10 weeks of the season after needing surgery. He’s expected to be ready for the start of training camp, as is fellow ILB NaVorro Bowman (knee). ILB Chris Borland shined as a rookie in place of Willis last season and would likely be a starter for many other teams, but the 49ers will likely try to make another run in 2015 with their current veteran-laden defense.
OLB Ahmad Brooks
Cap number: $7.055M
Cap savings: $1.509M
Cash savings: $7.3M
Dead money: $5.546M
Brooks is likely as good as gone. He was reportedly close to being traded prior to the trade deadline, then lashed out at then-DL coach Jim Tomsula, who is now the new head coach, prior to a November game. Brooks missed a couple team meetings throughout the season, leading to two separate benchings. Second-year OLB Aaron Lynch is ready to take over opposite Aldon Smith. Brooks turns 31 in 12 days. He could reunite with ex-49ers GM Scot McCloughan with the Redskins.
TE Vernon Davis
Cap number: $6.968M
Cap savings: $4.9M
Cash savings: $4.95M
Dead money: $2.068M
Davis is coming off a career-worst season that saw him post an awful 26-245-2 receiving line across 14 starts. The downfall was swift after he caught 13 touchdowns in 2013. After his huge 2013 season, Davis sat out OTAs last spring in hope of a new contract. He didn’t get one and then went on to hit a wall as a 30-year-old. Now 31, Davis is clearly in the decline phase of his career. He’s entering the final year of his contract, but GM Trent Baalke said at the Combine that Davis will be back in San Francisco this season. We’ve seen coaches and GMs lie before, but chances appear slim that Davis will actually be cut. Look for Davis to become a bigger part of the red-zone offense this season.
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